The Failures of Education in Wales: A Critical Analysis

Executive Summary

Wales' education system has experienced a sustained period of decline since devolution in 1999, characterised by chronic underperformance, systemic budget mismanagement, ministerial instability, and constantly shifting policies. The 2022 PISA results represent the nadir of this decline, with Welsh students recording their worst-ever performance and falling significantly behind other UK nations. This precis examines the interconnected failures across budgets, ministerial leadership, and policy implementation that have created a crisis of confidence in Welsh education.

  1. Budget Failures and Financial Mismanagement

Chronic Underfunding Despite Similar Per-Pupil Spending

While Wales maintains similar per-pupil spending to England (approximately £7,200 per pupil in 2022-23), the allocation and utilisation of these funds reveals systemic failures:

  • Missed Opportunities: Unlike Scotland, which leveraged stable pupil numbers to increase per-pupil spending to over £8,500, Wales failed to capitalise on minimal pupil number changes since 2010
  • Real-Terms Cuts: Between 2009-10 and 2018-19, spending per pupil fell by 5% in real terms, undermining educational capacity during a critical period

Local Authority Budget Crisis

The education funding crisis has reached critical levels at the local authority level:

  • Widespread Deficits: 27% of Welsh schools are currently operating in deficit, with a combined national deficit of £72 million as of March 2026
  • Cardiff Example: Over one-third of Cardiff schools are projected to exceed their budgets by £4.4 million in 2024-25, representing a significant deterioration from previous years
  • Survival Mode: School leaders report being "in survival mode," forced to make unprecedented cuts to staff and provision

Misallocation of Education Consequentials

The Welsh Government's handling of education funding from Westminster demonstrates poor prioritisation:

  • £329 Million Shortfall: Of £329 million in education consequentials allocated to Wales by the UK Government, only £39 million was earmarked for schools in the 2026/27 draft budget
  • £380 Million Unallocated: The Welsh Government held £380 million unallocated in its draft budget while schools faced a predicted £137 million deficit
  • Further Education Crisis: Colleges face a funding shortfall exceeding £25 million, threatening the Young Person's Guarantee
  1. Ministerial Inability and Leadership Instability

Frequent Ministerial Changes

The education portfolio has suffered from significant instability in leadership:

  • Kirsty Williams (Liberal Democrat, 2016-2021): Cabinet Secretary for Education and Skills
  • Jeremy Miles (Labour, 2021-2024): Minister for Education and Welsh Language
  • Lynne Neagle (Labour, 2024-present): Cabinet Secretary for Education

Expert Resignations and Policy Failures

The Welsh Government's inability to work effectively with educational experts has undermined reform efforts:

  • Literacy Panel Resignation: Elizabeth Nonweiler, a leading international reading expert, resigned from the Expert Literacy Panel in October 2025, citing the £8.2 million literacy plan as "not fit for purpose"
  • Mixed Messages: The panel was criticised for embedding "mixed messages" and failing to publish any findings after nearly a year of work
  • Phonics Resistance: Ministers' refusal to adopt evidence-based phonics teaching methods, despite their success in England, was described as motivated by "separatism"

Leadership Crisis in Schools

The ministerial failures have cascaded to school leadership level:

  • Recruitment Crisis: Persistent difficulties in recruiting and retaining school leaders
  • Over-reliance on Agency Staff: Schools increasingly dependent on temporary staffing solutions
  • Estyn Concerns: The education inspectorate has raised concerns about limited impact of local government support on attendance and leadership capacity
  1. Ever-Changing Policies and Shifting Responsibilities

Curriculum Reform Chaos

The introduction of the Curriculum for Wales represents a fundamental policy shift with questionable foundations:

  • Scottish Model Concerns: The curriculum is partly based on Scotland's Curriculum for Excellence, which has shown evidence of ineffectiveness in developing skills
  • Skills-Based Approach: Research suggests that general skills-based curricula may not effectively develop the intended skills
  • Implementation Uncertainty: The system faces "unprecedented levels of system upheaval" from the reach and scope of post-2015 reforms

GCSE Reform Risks

Planned changes to GCSEs from 2025 threaten to exacerbate existing problems:

  • Continuous Assessment: Greater use of continuous assessment risks increasing teacher workload
  • Subject Breadth: Broader range of subjects may dilute focus on core skills
  • Triple Science Removal: Elimination of triple science as an option could limit future educational opportunities
  • Inequality Concerns: These reforms risk widening educational inequalities

Three Waves of Policy Confusion

Educational researchers have identified three distinct policy waves since devolution, each representing fundamental shifts in approach:

  1. First Wave (1999-2010): Experimental approach with new policy pilots
  2. Second Wave (2010-2015): Turn towards accountability following poor 2009 PISA results
  3. Third Wave (2015-present): Ambitious reform journey with complex implementation challenges

Devolution and Accountability Gaps

The devolved settlement has created accountability gaps:

  • Reduced External Accountability: Lower levels of external scrutiny compared to England
  • Limited Data Use: Less systematic use of data to understand educational inequalities
  • Local Authority Variations: Inconsistent support and guidance across different local authorities
  1. Performance Outcomes and International Comparisons

PISA 2022 Disaster

The 2022 PISA results represent the culmination of systemic failures:

  • Worst-Ever Performance: Wales recorded its lowest-ever PISA scores across mathematics, reading, and science
  • Mathematics Decline: The fall in mathematics attainment equivalent to a whole year's education
  • UK Comparison: Welsh students performed significantly below England, Scotland, and Northern Ireland
  • International Standing: Average Welsh pupils performed at the same level as the most disadvantaged children in England

Persistent Inequality

Educational inequality in Wales exceeds that found in England:

  • GCSE Gap: The gap between disadvantaged and other children in Wales (22-23 months of educational progress) exceeds that in England (18 months)
  • Geographic Concentration: Local areas with lowest performance for disadvantaged pupils are predominantly in Wales
  • Post-16 Outcomes: Higher proportion of young people not in education, employment, or training (11% vs 5-9% in rest of UK)

Wellbeing Concerns

Despite curriculum emphasis on wellbeing, outcomes remain poor:

  • PISA Wellbeing: Pupil wellbeing in Wales significantly below OECD average
  • Attendance Crisis: High absenteeism rates linked to poverty and systemic issues
  1. Systemic Analysis and Root Causes

Policy Implementation Failures

The recurring theme across all three policy waves is implementation failure:

  • Ambitious Rhetoric: Grand policy announcements without adequate implementation planning
  • Resource Constraints: Insufficient funding to support major reforms
  • Capacity Gaps: Limited system capacity to deliver complex changes
  • Evaluation Weakness: Poor monitoring and evaluation of policy effectiveness

Governance Problems

The devolved education system suffers from fundamental governance weaknesses:

  • Accountability Deficit: Reduced external scrutiny and challenge
  • Data Poverty: Limited systematic collection and use of performance data
  • Professional Development: Inadequate support for teacher and leader development
  • Strategic Coherence: Lack of long-term strategic vision across political cycles

Cultural and Political Factors

Educational policy in Wales has been influenced by political rather than educational considerations:

  • Separatist Motivation: Desire to be different from England has overridden evidence-based policy making
  • Professional Resistance: Reluctance to adopt proven methods from other jurisdictions
  • Political Instability: Frequent changes in ministerial leadership disrupting long-term planning
  1. Conclusions and Implications

The failures of education in Wales represent a comprehensive system breakdown across multiple dimensions. Budget mismanagement has starved schools of resources while ministerial instability has prevented coherent policy development. The constant churn of educational reforms has created uncertainty and implementation fatigue without delivering improved outcomes.

The 2022 PISA results serve as a stark warning that without fundamental reform of governance, funding, and policy approach, Welsh education will continue to fail its young people. The Institute for Fiscal Studies' recommendation for a "big rethink" of Welsh education policy reflects the scale of change required.

Key areas requiring immediate attention include:

  • Stable, evidence-based policy making free from political interference
  • Adequate and sustained funding with proper accountability mechanisms
  • Professional development and support for educational leaders
  • Systematic data collection and performance monitoring
  • Long-term strategic planning beyond electoral cycles

Without addressing these fundamental failures, Wales risks condemning another generation of young people to educational underachievement and reduced life opportunities.

 

Ian Williams (completed 14/04/2026)

Ian Williams